Assumptions
You
Saving
Retirement
Allocation and costs
Probability of success
63.0%
At risk
Share of paths where savings last to age 95
Median at retirement
$697,583
Age 65
90% range $296K to $1.9M
Worst case
$0
5th percentile, wealth at 95
Failed paths run out around age 83
Best case
$6,794,497
95th percentile, wealth at 95
Median outcome $407K
Projected wealth
Today's dollars; shaded bands hold 50% and 90% of simulated paths
Distribution and sensitivity
Ending wealth distribution
Top 3% of paths trimmed for scale; best single path $103,699,592
What it takes
Savings rate for 80% success
Calculating…
Annual gap funded by savings
$32,000
Savings needed under the 4% rule
$800,000
Median savings at retirement vs. 4% rule
87% of target
Years of saving / years of retirement
47 / 30
Returns are drawn each year from correlated lognormal distributions: stocks 8.5% mean / 17.0% volatility, bonds 4.5% / 6.0%, cash 3.0% / 1.0% (nominal, before fees), rebalanced annually. Taxes are ignored. This is an educational model, not financial advice.