Data sources
Financial statements: SEC EDGAR company-facts XBRL API. For each period the most recently filed value is used, so restatements supersede original figures. Quarterly cash flows are derived from year-to-date filings; LTM sums the last four reported quarters.
Insider transactions: SEC Form 4 XML filings, parsed for transaction code, shares, price and holdings after the trade. Open-market purchases (P) and sales (S) are summarized separately from compensation events.
Market data: Yahoo Finance: daily OHLC, adjusted close and volume on the S&P 500 trading calendar; company profile; analyst EPS and revenue estimates, price targets, rating distribution, earnings dates and surprises; news headlines by RSS. The S&P 500 is represented by SPY total return.
Macroeconomic data: FRED (rates, CPI, GDP, unemployment, credit spreads, VIX), the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve, and Federal Reserve press releases by RSS. The 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10) sets the default risk-free rate.
Research notes: written by deterministic templates from the figures on the page. No language model is involved, so each statement can be traced to a number.
Models
Operating companies: unlevered DCF. FCFF = EBIT x (1 - tax) + D&A - capex - change in NWC. Revenue growth fades linearly to the final year; operating margin converges linearly to a normalized target. Gordon growth terminal value on year N + 1 cash flow, with working capital rebuilt only for terminal growth. Discount rate = CAPM-based WACC with a floor (default 7%).
Banks, brokers and insurers (SIC 6000-6499, excluding managed care): residual income model. Value = book value + PV of (ROE - cost of equity) x opening book value, with book value compounding at retained earnings. Cost of equity floor 8%.
Enterprise value = market capitalization + total debt - cash and short-term investments; not computed for financial institutions. For insurers, short-term investments back policy liabilities and are not deducted. Where operating income is not tagged, EBIT = pre-tax income + interest expense. Where capex is not tagged, the capex assumption defaults to D&A.
Rating: six factors scored -2 to +2 and weighted: intrinsic value upside 30%, relative valuation 15%, growth 15%, returns on capital 15%, balance sheet or capital strength 10%, risk-adjusted return 15%. Buy at +0.50 or above, Sell at -0.50 or below.
Historical valuation bands: P/E, EV/EBITDA and P/S (P/E and P/B for financials) computed weekly from daily prices and the trailing fundamentals available 45 days after each period end, compared with their own average and one standard deviation.
Economic regime: Stagflation if CPI inflation is above 3.5% with weak growth; Recession if real GDP contracts or the Sahm rule (3-month unemployment average 0.5 pp above its 12-month low) triggers; Recovery if growth is positive while unemployment is elevated but falling; Expansion if GDP grows 1.5% or more; otherwise Slowdown.
Portfolio builder: daily-rebalanced returns from adjusted closes; Sharpe and Sortino from the annualized mean daily return over the 10-year yield, divided by volatility or downside deviation; historical 95% VaR and CVaR; risk share from each holding's covariance with the portfolio.
Retirement simulator: 5,000 paths of correlated lognormal annual returns for stocks, bonds and cash (Cholesky factorization, seeded), contributions until retirement and inflation-adjusted withdrawals after.
Model outputs are quantitative screens, not investment advice.